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Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences

ISSN 1736-7530 (electronic)   ISSN 1736-6046 (print)
Formerly: Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences, series Physics & Mathematics and  Chemistry
Published since 1952

Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences

ISSN 1736-7530 (electronic)   ISSN 1736-6046 (print)
Formerly: Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences, series Physics & Mathematics and  Chemistry
Published since 1952
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Towards identification of areas of reduced risk in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea; pp. 156–165

(Full article in PDF format) doi: 10.3176/proc.2010.2.15


Authors

Tarmo Soomere, Bert Viikmäe, Nicole Delpeche, Kai Myrberg

Abstract

A Lagrangian trajectory model, TRACMASS with the use of velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre (Swedish Hydrological and Meteorological Institute) circulation model, is employed to analyse trajectories of current-driven surface transport in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea, for the period of 1987–1991. Statistical analysis of trajectories is performed to calculate a map of probabilities for adverse impacts released in different sea areas to hit the coast. There is a clearly defined curve (equiprobability line) in the western part of the gulf from which the chances of the propagation of adverse impacts to either of the coasts are equal. The current-driven propagation of tracers from a wide area (of reduced risk) to the coast in the central and eastern parts of the gulf is unlikely within about three weeks. A safe fairway in terms of coastal protection goes over the equiprobability line and the area of reduced risk.

Keywords

pollution transport, risk analysis, currents, hydrodynamic modelling, Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea.

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Current Issue: Vol. 67, Issue 1 in Press, 2018




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